However, the West should consider even more financial sanctions that could strain their economy further as the war grinds on to deter Russia from further expanding its aggression into the space domain, which is also critical for Moscow’s nuclear forces. The crippling sanctions that have already been imposed on Russia include blocks on high-tech imports for its space program. In the face of immense economic pressure because of sanctions by the United States and its allies, Russia might feel incentivized to seize Ukraine’s engineering and aerospace infrastructure to help scale Moscow’s space ambitions. This would be akin to Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard to out-compete Facebook in the metaverse. The Russians may want to leverage Ukrainian space research and development for their own strategic interests. The twenty state-run corporations in Ukraine’s “ space cluster”-the area around Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kyiv-are particularly mouth-watering options for Moscow. Ukraine’s strong space sector could also serve as an attractive prize for the Kremlin, should Russia consolidate its control over specific parts of its neighbor’s territory. A longer-term imperative is to fully appreciate Russia’s abilities to kinetically attack space-based strategic assets and develop credible solutions to mitigate that threat. This would show that the United States can mitigate Russia’s ASAT capability. In the future, however, the US Space Force is investing in the private sector to develop the ability to remove space debris deliberately created by a nation like Russia. Russia isn’t likely to use ASAT capabilities in the current war unless it perceives an existential threat. Unfortunately, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty that outlines what a nation can and cannot do in space is so ambiguous in its wording that Russia’s ASAT test last year does not clearly constitute an enforceable violation, even though it left significant space junk.
Depending on Russia’s evolving political and military objectives, it could escalate the war by using an ASAT to create fields of space debris that would interfere with Ukraine’s satellite capabilities or commercial satellite imagery providers. What if things get more heated in space? In November, Russia demonstrated its counterspace capabilities by destroying one of its own satellites in what is known as a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) test. The US Space Force recently launched two Geosynchronous Situational Awareness Program satellites to augment an existing constellation of satellites that track man-made objects in space.
The West has its own space domain awareness infrastructure that it will most likely use to counter any Russian space espionage during the war in Ukraine. Moscow has also split one of its military satellites, with the “child” closely tracking a US strategic satellite. Russia’s Repei satellites likely collect intelligence. However, if Moscow escalates its use of these strategies, NATO and private space firms could respond by providing intelligence, telecommunications, or navigation capabilities to Ukraine, like SpaceX sending Starlink internet receivers when traditional internet service was disrupted by Russian forces. This can degrade critical unmanned aircraft operations and weapons use by Ukraine, while concealing Russian troop movements.įor the moment, Russia’s efforts to jam or fake GPS signals appear localized. Some reports suggest that Russia has already attempted GPS jamming and spoofing-faking geographical coordinates-in Ukraine. Though Russia’s billion-plus-dollar military space program has faced setbacks over the years, it has recently shifted its focus to capabilities that allow it to jam or interfere with other nations’ space assets. Here’s a look at Russia’s possible range of space weapons and how the West can respond, both to blunt attacks and hold Moscow accountable. It isn’t a stretch to imagine that Russia might try to use space capabilities against Ukraine. Space assets like GPS signals are important for, among other things, Ukrainian unmanned aircraft that could be used to target Russian artillery. This is particularly vital since space capabilities also enable Moscow’s nuclear infrastructure, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has put on high alert. However, as fierce Ukrainian resistance frustrates Russia’s invading military, it is critical for the West to fully understand a fourth domain where the Kremlin might try to gain superiority through its toolkit of aggression: space. Understandably, much of the analysis of Moscow’s capabilities has focused on its conventional forces. In recent weeks, Russian forces have advanced on Ukraine by land, air, and sea.
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